Capitol Report: Why a major trade war could mean a ‘full-blown recession’ [MarketWatch]
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
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Source: MarketWatch
Why a major trade war could mean a ‘full-blown recession’ So far, the trade war has been more bark than bite, as the U.S. tariffs on aluminum, steel and Chinese goods are dwarfed in magnitude by threatened levies. A new research note says that’s a relief, because an all-out trade war risks a recession. To date, there’s only been escalation, and for good reason. As President Donald Trump has announced and then implemented tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum, as well as an initial $50 billion of Chinese goods, his standings in polls have improved, the economy may record a GDP print north of 4% for the second quarter, and U.S. stocks DJIA, +0.64% have fared far better than Chinese ones SHCOMP, +0.49% Trump and close White House advisers such as Wilbur Ross and Peter Navarro are confident they can win a trade war if only for the straightforward logic that China exports far more to the U.S. than vice versa. But China as well as Canada, Mexico and the European Union have yet to giv
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