Time To Short Catastrophe Reinsurer, Blue Capital Reinsurance [Seeking Alpha]
BLUE CAPITAL REINSURANCE HOLDINGS (BCRH)
Last blue capital reinsurance holdings earnings: 5/2 04:30 pm
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US:NYSE Investor Relations:
ir-bcrh.bluecapital.bm/blue-capital-reinsurance-holdings-ltd
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Source: Seeking Alpha
Introduction This article discusses the investment thesis that involves shorting Blue Capital Reinsurance Holdings ( BCRH ). The key reasons for the 'short' thesis are: likely higher than reported losses, negative price and earnings momentum, and mostly negative news (psychology). I expect to see an upward revision of reported losses given 1) market practices of relying on catastrophe loss models (which tend to underestimate losses) and 2) BCRH's practices of upward revision of losses. There's only so many times one can kick the can down the road, but at some point, ever increasing insurance claims are likely to catch up. Given continuously deteriorating liquidity at BCRH and low cash balance levels, it seems that the day of reckoning is not far. Personally, I'm currently short BCRH. I'm not suggesting that BCRH will experience extreme distress, but I will wait for Q4 results (expected to be published in late January) to re-evaluate the next steps. Putting short-ter
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