Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Chargeable Costs Schedule Implies 70% Downside [Seeking Alpha]
BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust (BPT)
US:NYSE Investor Relations:
bpt.investorhq.businesswire.com
Company Research
Source: Seeking Alpha
Summary Introduction Trusts are not operating companies and are valued by calculating the net present value of future distribution payouts. Barring a sustained jump in WTI oil prices to $100/bbl over the next 3 years, our analysis of BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's (NYSE: BPT ) cash flows suggests BPT is significantly overvalued at current prices. In our baseline scenario, based on the current calendar strip price for WTI, the trust's quarterly distributions will fall to $0 beyond 2020 and the shares are worth just $6.75. That represents more than 75% discount from the current price. Alternatively, using a flat price deck at $75/bbl for WTI, trust royalties would cease after the first quarter of 2023, and the discounted sum of future distributions is $16.05. That value is still more than 40% below the current price. Investors who own BPT should consider selling the stock before a significant step-up in chargeable costs results in falling distributions by early 2019 bar
Show less
Read more
Impact Snapshot
Event Time:
BPT
Last Price
Price Change
Price Change%
Volume Shares
Max Up
Max Down
%
Volume Ratio
Performance Comparison
Updated
|
Event Day
Stock performance from the time of news release until the following 4pm ET market close
|
Last price at news event
|
Since Event
Multi-day stock performance from the time of the news release
|
|---|---|---|
|
EVENT DAY
Stock performance from the time of news release until the following 4pm ET market close
|
LAST
PRICE AT NEWS EVENT |
SINCE EVENT
Multi-day stock performance from the time of the news release
|
| Last Price | ||
| VWAP | ||
|
High:
|
Max Up |
High:
|
|
Low:
|
Max Down |
Low:
|
|
%
|
Post news range |
%
|
|
|
Price change |
|
|
|
Price Change Percentage |
|
|
|
S&P 500 (SPX) |
|
|
%
|
Volume ratio |
%
|
| Volume | ||
| Ticks | ||
|
|
Avg transaction size |
|
Don't Miss Out On The Next BIG Stock Move
Event day
Event Day Chart will not be displayed beyond 90-day period of the event
Performance since event
Time And Velocity Analysis
Be the first to know
Opt in for alerts from News Quantifed
Sign Up Today
Opt-in for
BPT alerts
Learn More With NQ
Reading the Impact Report
Help Me Understand This Data
Help Me Understand This Data
How NQ Works
What is news-based trading?
And why is it so successful?
And why is it so successful?
Movers & Shakers
The biggest gainers and losers and WHY it moved
BPT alerts
High impacting BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust news events
Weekly update
A roundup of the hottest topics
BPT
Sec Filings
- 4/5/24 - Form 8-K
- 3/14/24 - Form 10-K
- BPT's page on the SEC website