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Sell BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust: Chargeable Costs Schedule Implies 70% Downside [Seeking Alpha]

BP PRUDHOE BAY (BPT)  More Company Research Source: Seeking Alpha
US:NYSE Investor Relations: bpt.investorhq.businesswire.com
PDF Summary Introduction Trusts are not operating companies and are valued by calculating the net present value of future distribution payouts. Barring a sustained jump in WTI oil prices to $100/bbl over the next 3 years, our analysis of BP Prudhoe Bay Royalty Trust's (NYSE: BPT ) cash flows suggests BPT is significantly overvalued at current prices. In our baseline scenario, based on the current calendar strip price for WTI, the trust's quarterly distributions will fall to $0 beyond 2020 and the shares are worth just $6.75. That represents more than 75% discount from the current price. Alternatively, using a flat price deck at $75/bbl for WTI, trust royalties would cease after the first quarter of 2023, and the discounted sum of future distributions is $16.05. That value is still more than 40% below the current price. Investors who own BPT should consider selling the stock before a significant step-up in chargeable costs results in falling distributions by early 2019 bar [Read more]

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