Emerging markets offer dubious investment appeal [Reuters]
China Index Holdings Limited - American Depository Shares (CIH)
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Source: Reuters
In the early 1980s the Dutch economist Antoine van Agtmael wanted to launch a “Third World Investment Fund” but was told the name wasn't catchy enough. So he came up with the more upbeat “emerging markets”. In 1985, the first index tracking these stocks was launched. A couple of years later, MSCI created its own benchmark. Fund managers promoted the new asset class with the promise that higher rates of economic growth across the developing world would be accompanied by superior equity returns. In 2001, Goldman Sachs forecast that the economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (the BRICs) would overtake the developed world within decades. Van Agtmael hailed the “ Emerging Markets Century ”. The problem with this idea is that there is no correlation between economic growth and equity returns. In theory, in a world with free capital flows, shareholder returns from different stock markets should converge. Historic data from various countries since 1900 confirms that investors have no
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