How long can markets and the economy move in opposite directions? These indicators hold valuable clues [Toronto Globe and Mail (Ontario, Canada)]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Toronto Globe and Mail
How long can markets and the economy move in opposite directions? These indicators hold valuable clues The second quarter saw an equity market rally among the strongest in history exist simultaneously with global economic data resembling the worst periods of the Great Depression. Investors are clearly looking through the current collapse in profit growth in expectation for a sharp economic recovery. But these two trends are incompatible over any significant time period. These two charts will be vital for investors to follow in the coming months, providing clues on how and when this disconnect between markets and economic growth will be resolved. The first chart, in hindsight, was the only one investors needed to follow in 2020. It compares S&P 500 returns with financial conditions – corporate borrowing costs, essentially – and it highlights the degree to which central banks have saved the day for equity investors. The Goldman Sachs U.S. Financial Conditions Index was developed by the
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