Morgan Stanley sees recession within year if trade war gets any worse [Financial Post (Toronto, Ontario, Canada)]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Financial Post
Morgan Stanley sees recession within year if trade war gets any worse Last time the world economy looked like it does now was at the start of 2016 — which was followed by a global slowdown Wall Street’s biggest banks lined up to warn investors of growing recession risks from the escalating trade war between the U.S. and China. A global recession could start within nine months if President Donald Trump imposes 25 per cent tariffs on an additional US$300 billion of Chinese exports and Beijing retaliates, according to Morgan Stanley. Separately, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said the probability of a U.S. recession in the second half of this year had risen to 40 per cent from 25 per cent a month ago. “Recent conversations with investors have reinforced the sense that markets are underestimating the impact of trade tensions,” Chetan Ahya, chief economist at Morgan Stanley, wrote in a report. “Investors are generally of the view that the trade dispute could drag on for longer, but they appear to be
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