Wall Street sees Fed 'quantitative tightening' sooner rather than later: MarketWatch [Seeking Alpha]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
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Source: Seeking Alpha
The Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening program, its plan to gradually shrink its balance sheet without jarring financial markets, could end sooner than Fed Chair Jerome Powell had previously indicated, according to Wall Street firms' prognosticators. Powell has discussed reducing the balance sheet to as low as $2.5T, but some Wall Street firms say the Fed may keep it as high as $3.8T, MarketWatch reports. Under its plan, the Fed is allowing as much as $50B of its Treasury- and mortgage-backed securities holdings mature each month without replacing them, a tactic takes money out of the financial system as the Treasury finds new buyers for its debt. Since October 2017, the Fed's bond portfolio declined by about $365B to $4.14T. Morgan Stanley sees the Fed stopping the balance sheet runoff in September 2019 with the portfolio at about $3.8T. Scotiabank sees the plan continuing until late 2020 or early 2021. Previously: Fed estimates 'neutral' level of rates a
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