New Zealand Economy Will Skirt Recession in 2023, Treasury Says [Business News Network (BNN) (Canada)]
NATL AUSTRALIA BK S/ADR (NABZY)
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Source: Business News Network
Forecasts in Thursday's budget show gross domestic product will grow just 0.1% in each of the second, third and fourth quarters of 2023. They show that annual average growth in the year ending June 2024 will slump to 0.7% from 4.2% in the previous year. In a downside risk scenario, the economy would shrink 1%. “They forecast the same annual average growth as do we for the year ended June 2024,” said Stephen Toplis, Head of Research at Bank of New Zealand in Wellington. “We get there with a recession. They carefully avoid such by printing a series of very low quarterly growth moves.” Finance Minister Grant Robertson will want to avoid a recession as his government seeks a third term in elections that must be held by November next year. That may prove difficult as the global economic outlook darkens, government pandemic stimulus wanes and the Reserve Bank tightens monetary policy aggressively to combat the fastest inflation in more than 30 years. RBNZ policy makers meet next week
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