The Tell: U.S. economy may face trouble if ‘sideways’ Treasury trade doesn’t end [MarketWatch]
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Source: MarketWatch
U.S. economy may face trouble if ‘sideways’ Treasury trade doesn’t end Don’t be lulled into complacency by a newfound calm in Treasury markets. That’s the warning from Jim Vogel of FTN Financial, who wrote in a Thursday note that if the current “sideways” trading takes hold in government bond trading for too long, that placidity could serve as a more troublesome sign of the economy’s prospects. That’s because if the bond market spends an extended period at the current level of quiescence, it suggests that the usual bounceback in growth after the first quarter of the year may not pan out, removing a catalyst for higher yields. Bond prices fall as yields climb. “The unfortunate problem, if ‘sideways’ extends too far, is the implication economic momentum is stalling. The pattern of the last two years has been growth picks up after a quarter of slower activity,” wrote Vogel. “That doesn’t make it automatic, however.” Gross domestic product tends to accelerate in the second quarter after a
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