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U.S. Federal Reserve shifts talk to ‘scenarios' as policy grows less certain [Globe and Mail, The (Toronto, Canada)]
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Former Fed officials and staffers with experience attending meetings of the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee say that's a sign of just how uncertain policy-makers feel right now and is meant to shift attention from the detailed economic and policy projections they produce each quarter and onto a wider array of potential outcomes. “Scenario analysis,” as it's known, isn't meant to account for every shock, and in normal times can amount to a “quite mundane” list of economic narratives presented by Fed staff at each meeting, said Antulio Bomfim, a former Powell adviser who is now head of global macro for Northern Trust's global fixed income team. But Powell's elaboration in his post-meeting May 1 news conference about different paths the economy might follow “caught my attention,” Bomfim said. “Scenario analysis becomes important to handle those situations where you're especially uncertain about what's coming next.” The minutes from that meeting are scheduled to be rel
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