Bursting The Micro-Bubble In Tech Stocks & How To Bet Against It [Forbes]
Tesla, Inc. (TSLA)
Last tesla, inc. earnings: 4/29 04:11 pm
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Source: Forbes
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg Although the overall stock market looks reasonably valued , there are pockets of extraordinary risk where stocks with 2000-bubble-like valuations lurk. Specifically, there is a “micro-bubble” in certain tech stocks, where valuations reflect expectations for future cash flows that would require unrealistically high margins, growth, and market share. These expectations might not be so “bubbly” if not for the fact that the current margins and cash flows of these companies have trended at very low or negative levels for years. Stocks in Micro-Bubble #1 Figure 1 lists the five tech stocks we put in our first micro-bubble. They share a few key characteristics: Low or negative return on invested capital ( ROIC ) and free cash flow Unrealistically high valuations: all ten companies either have negative economic book values, or they have a PEBV above 20 Expectations that they achieve heretofore
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