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May UK rate rise still likely but Brexit obscures next moves [Reuters (UK)]

BARCLAYS (BCS)  More Company Research Source: Reuters
PDF May UK rate rise still likely but Brexit obscures next moves | Reuters 5 Min Read LONDON (Reuters) - British interest rates are still expected to rise in May following a barrage of hawkish signals from Bank of England policymakers, but most economists polled by Reuters don’t see a follow-up move for another year. Part of the hesitation stems from the fact that Britain’s economy has moved from leading to lagging all of its industrialised peers, and is facing its most far-reaching change since the Second World War: leaving the European Union. Indeed, the latest Reuters poll found no upgrades to economists’ already modest inflation and growth forecasts. The consensus view also showed the likelihood of a disorderly exit from the EU has held at 20 percent, where it has been all year, with but several saying that it had increased in the past week. The range was 5-60 percent. The highest median probability was 30 percent reached in July 2017, and again last October. All but one of the respon [Read more]

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