Prediction markets in the news are a dangerous gamble [Verge, The]
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Source: Verge, The
Today on Decoder , let's talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news itself in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways. My guest today is Liz Lopatto, senior reporter at The Verge , who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position that directly incentivizes insider trading. That, in turn, creates a long list of very predictable problems. This past weekend, after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran, leading prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket erupted with activity. That included extremely contentious markets around the death of Iran's supreme leader, and some that appeared to be rife with insider trading from people with advanced knowledge of US military actions. Verge subscribers, don't forget you get exclusive access to ad
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