An Overlooked FX Rally in Latin America Has Its Days Numbered [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
AllianceBernstein Holding L.P. Units (AB)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
While Mexico's currency gained the epithet in 2023 with a 15% jump, the best among majors, its less-traded counterpart in Colombia was up by 11 percentage points more in the same period. In the past 12 months, the Colombian currency is up 15%, compared with Mexico's 4.6% advance. Now that success is coming to an end, with analysts at Natwest Markets and BBVA saying the rally has gone too far. A shrinking rate differential with the US — as the Colombian central bank cuts borrowing costs and the Federal Reserve turns more cautious — is starting to weigh on the currency, while local risks including disputed economic reforms lurk in the background. “I am bearish COP at these levels,” said Alvaro Vivanco, head of emerging-market strategy at Natwest Markets. Political risk “is not properly priced in, and the effects of the oil rally can be eliminated with a stronger dollar overall.” Citigroup ended its overweight recommendation on both the Mexican and Colombian pesos last week, sayin
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- 4/25/24 - Beat
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