Odds of Recession Within Next Year in South Africa Climb [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
ABSA GROUP LTD S/ADR (AGRPY)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
The probability of a recession stands at 68%, up from odds of 45% in January, according to Bloomberg's latest monthly survey of economists. The poll was conducted Feb. 3-9, with six economists responding to a question about the chance of a recession. The prediction comes after Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd. said rolling blackouts, known locally as loadshedding, are likely to persist for at least two more years as the state-owned power utility overhauls its aging, mostly coal-fired plants. The company, which produces almost all of South Africa's electricity, has struggled to meet demand since 2008, and has imposed outages every day this year to protect the grid from collapse. Sustained outages are seen as the most significant risk to economic growth. Economists polled by Bloomberg predict the economy shrank in the final quarter of 2022 and that it's on course to contract in the three months through March. Statistics agency data published this week showed mining and manufacturing output
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