The dangers of investor confirmation bias amid COVID-19, the opportunity in investment-grade bonds, and RBC’s new stock picks [Toronto Globe and Mail (Ontario, Canada)]
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Source: Toronto Globe and Mail
The dangers of investor confirmation bias amid COVID-19, the opportunity in investment-grade bonds, and RBC’s new stock picks I’m worried that optimistic views about a quick market and economic recovery represent a harmful behavioural tendency called confirmation bias. The always-helpful Psy-Fi website – dedicated to the study of psychological preferences that reduce investor returns – described confirmation bias as “our dedicated and sometimes demented preference for information that supports our pre-existing beliefs or decisions, and our equally fervent attempts to avoid finding disconfirming evidence.” Applied to the current situation, confirmation bias may be taking a form whereby we hope fervently that the dislocations arising from the pandemic will be short-lived, and then using the strong equity rally from the March 23 lows to confirm that our hopes are justified. There are certainly credible and far less optimistic forecasts that were ignored while stocks bounced. Morgan Stanl
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