Why the US isn't facing a stagflation threat even as growth slows, according to BofA [Business Insider]
Bank of America Corporation (BAC)
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Source: Business Insider
While first-quarter GDP badly missed estimates, the inflation that was seen was driven by strong consumer spending. That separates it from the US's last bout with stagflation, in 2022, when higher prices were caused by a supply shock. Bank of America isn't worried about looming stagflationary fallout, and says recent anxiety around the dangerous economic scenario was based on misread data points. Fear arose in April when first-quarter GDP missed expectations as inflation figures simultaneously surpassed estimates. This set off alarm bells around possible stagflation , an unwelcome development where prices keep rising amid an economic cooldown — and a situation that can ultimately be worse than recession. But Bank of America has delved deeper into the data and found that these fears aren't warranted. It uses a stagflationary period in 2022 as a basis for comparison — a period when inflation rose because of a post-COVID supply shock that far outpaced demand. "It is based on a
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