Turkey's Erdogan Holds Firm on Interest Rates. Inflation Is Rising and the Lira Is Plunging. [MarketWatch]
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Source: MarketWatch
Three summers ago, the veteran leader backpedaled on his idiosyncratic conviction that high interest rates cause inflation and are propped by a nefarious foreign “interest-rate lobby.” Turkey's central bank yanked rates from 8% to 24%, rescuing a tail-spinning currency and making fat profits for investors on the right side of the trade. Not this time. The lira is tail-spinning again, down 25% against the dollar over the past three weeks. Inflation is 20% annually and rising. But no new hike is coming to the rescue. “I have never defended raising interest rates,” Erdogan said over the weekend. “I will never compromise on this issue.” Investors believe him, for now. The central bank, purged since 2018 of independent professionals, has cut by 4 percentage points since September, with more expected in December. “Cutting while the lira is selling off and oil is elevated doesn't make sense, politically or economically,” says Aaron Hurd, senior currency portfolio manager at State Street
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