Top Bond Forecasters Diverge as Fed Keeps the Market in Limbo [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Barclays PLC (BCS)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
Pradhan, the head of US rates strategy at Barclays Capital, and Stanley, the chief economist at Santander US Capital Markets, have been two of the most accurate Wall Street bond forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg so far this year. Each predicted roughly how much Treasury yields would rise during the first quarter — and broke with others by expecting rates to stay up through the end of June as sticky inflation kept the Federal Reserve on hold. But the two are now parting ways. Pradhan says that 10-year yields, currently around 4.5%, will likely push higher — possibly re-testing the 16-year peak of 5% that was hit in October — as the US economy keeps powering ahead. Stanley, by contrast, says the bond market has turned the corner: He expects the benchmark yield to hold steady through June and drift down to 4% by December, anticipating that the Fed will have leeway to start taking its foot off the brakes. The divergence underscores the uncertainty that has continued to grip the fin
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