Trader Bets on a Trump Dollar Rally Undercut by Historical Study [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Barclays PLC (BCS)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
Pasquale Della Corte of London's Imperial College Business School and Hsuan Fu at Quebec's Universite Laval found there is a statistically significant relationship between exchange-rate returns and US presidential cycles. The study, which hasn't been peer reviewed yet, shows the dollar on average climbs 4.2% a year when Democrats were in power and slides 1.3% with Republicans. During Trump's first term, the currency slumped 10% on a trade-weighed basis. The findings go against a growing number of predictions from banks including Barclays Plc, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Wells Fargo & Co. and Citigroup Inc that Trump's proposed mix of export tariffs and tax cuts will boost the dollar, while spurring inflation and a potential for interest-rate hikes. The study suggests the key factor to watch out for is trade strategy, which historically has had the biggest impact on the greenback. “We found that US presidents and their trade policies matter significantly to the dollar,” Della Corte sa
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