Bitauto: Privatization Scenario Offers Considerable Upside With Limited Downside [Seeking Alpha]
BITAUTO HOLDINGS (BITA)
Last bitauto holdings earnings: 3/26 06:00 am
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US:NYSE Investor Relations:
ir.bitauto.com
Company Research
Source: Seeking Alpha
SummaryA 4Q19 earnings miss and weakened 1Q20 guidance weighs on the outlook for BITA.BITA shares have since fallen far below the $16 privatization offer price by Tencent/Hammer Capital.My base case remains for a deal to materialize, albeit with a delayed timeline and a lower offer price.A deal at pre-privatization valuations would yield ~15% upside, with limited downside given the current depressed valuations.Following the announcement of a pending Bitauto (privatization by Tencent and Hammer Capital late last year4Q19 Earnings Miss as Marketing Spending Ramps UpThough total revenue fell 14% YoY for thequarterBITA has also launched a three-year marketing campaign since FY19, with phase I (2019-2020) specifically focused on enhancing brand recognition. These efforts have likely paid off, thus far, with strong daily average user (DAU) growth in Jan 2020 (+40% YoY). This follows strong sales lead growth of 8.8% YoY in 4Q19, as well as higher organic sales lead contribution (~70%).In ter
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