Slower Fed Pivot Weakens Rate-Cut Bets Across Emerging Asia [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
BNP PARIBAS SPONS ADR (BNPQY)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
Interest rate swaps for South Korea, Malaysia, and Thailand all jumped in recent weeks, a sign that traders are paring rate-cut expectations in those emerging markets. The Bloomberg Asia Dollar Index fell 0.8% in April, set for the fourth straight monthly decline, as solid US economic data and more hawkish bets for the Federal Reserve steer investors to the dollar. “With later and fewer Fed rate cuts, we also adjust our forecasts for Asian central banks – projecting a later start for an even shallower rate cut path,” Morgan Stanley economists including Chetan Ahya wrote in a note dated April 15. China, South Korea, Indonesia, the Philippines and Taiwan particularly are the markets that will likely see rate cut delays, they said. For now, the region's central banks have generally stuck to non-rate tools to support local currencies. More aggressive policy action may be needed if the weakness persists, with higher-for-longer rates or even a resumption of rate hikes being possible op
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