The US economy may have avoided a recession so far. Here's how that could change. [Yahoo! Finance]
BNP PARIBAS SPONS ADR (BNPQY)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
But with tariffs creating whiplash for businesses and consumers alike, economists caution that the economic impact could arrive sooner than anticipated, casting uncertainty over the broader outlook. As some Wall Street watchers have noted, the NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, the official group tasked with declaring recessions, only makes the call after analyzing months of economic data. That means we often don't know we're in a recession until it's already underway, or even over. But there are yellow flags to pay attention to. "How far to the point of no return — a recession?" Evercore ISI analyst Julian Emanuel asked in a Sunday note. "The answer lies in the jobs market." Widely seen as the economy's last line of defense, employment has remained remarkably resilient — much like it did in 2022 and 2023 during the previous major wave of recession fears . But economists warn that strength may not hold through the back half of the year, particularly if prolonged tariff un
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