CUSMA collapse could push Canada into recession, Scotiabank warns [Wealth Professional (Canada)]
Bank Nova Scotia Halifax Pfd 3 Ordinary Shares (BNS)
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Source: Wealth Professional
The future of the Canada–United States–Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) represents one of the most significant economic risks facing Canada this year, according to a new analysis from Scotiabank Economics. Scotiabank economist René Lalonde (with additional input from Olivier Gervais, Patrick Perrier, and Farah Omran) warns that while the collapse of the trilateral trade deal is unlikely, the economic consequences would be severe, potentially pushing Canada into recession and disrupting trade flows across North America. The research , titled Low Probability, High Cost: The Macroeconomics of a CUSMA Breakdown, examines the possible fallout if the agreement fails to be renewed during its scheduled 2026 review. The economists state that “the future of CUSMA is the single most consequential macro uncertainty facing the Canadian economy this year.” The review process could unfold in several ways. The three countries may agree to extend the pact for another 16 years, allow the deal to remai
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