How One Poll Transformed South Africa's Bond Market Fortunes [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Citigroup, Inc. (C)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
An April 26 Ipsos poll marked a turning point for investors fretting over the risk that the vote could lead to an unpredictable coalition government. Citigroup Inc. strategists are among those to turn positive, moving to an overweight on the debt. South African local currency bonds trailed emerging markets for much of the first four months of 2024. But the debt has rallied to outperform all developing nations tracked by Bloomberg — bar Argentina — since the poll. Investors have enjoyed returns of 5.5% in dollar terms, against an average of 0.8% in that period. “The election premium was felt in our bond market,” said Michelle Wohlberg, a fixed income analyst at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg. “But now that the Ipsos poll is out of the way, we've seen foreigners dip their toes into South African government bonds again.” Bloomberg Terminal clients can get click on ELEC ZA for more on South Africa's elections. At the heart of investors' concerns has been the prospect of a shi
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