There's an easy way to predict what the stock market will ultimately return, Citigroup says [CNBC]
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Source: CNBC
There's an easy way to predict what the stock market will ultimately return, Citigroup says Want to know where the stock market is going? Just track dividends, a strategist at Citi Research says. "Everyone has their favourite theory about what drives equity markets," strategist Robert Buckland wrote in a note earlier this month. "We think it's much simpler than that." Buckland notes that dividends across global equity markets have increased by 7% on an annualized basis since 2010. Global stocks have also grown at an annualized rate of 7% in that time. And by estimating the increase in overall dividends paid by stocks, investors should be able to forecast where stock prices are ultimately headed over the long term, Citi says. "Sure, sometimes share prices run ahead of dividends and sometimes they lag. But these decouplings don't last too long," Buckland said. strategists use complicated models with several inputs to calculate their forecasts But their long-term forecasting method sh
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