Larry Berman: Why the yield curve matters [Business News Network (BNN) Energy & Resources (Canada)]
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Source: Business News Network
Larry Berman: Why the yield curve matters The most ridiculous central bank comment of the day so far has come from Europe. ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said today that “a negative yield in the German 10-year bund yield has more to do with excess savings than it has to do with monetary policy." In 3,000 years of interest rate history documented, there has NEVER been negative interest rates until the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, Denmark and the BoJ decided to try it. You will never hear a central banker tell you anything negative until we are knee deep in it. About one year ago, I introduced an indicator to BNN Bloomberg viewers called the NY Fed Recession Probability Indicator. It looks at the difference U.S. three-month and 10-year interest rates known as the yield curve. Why do we care about the yield curve? Simply, the rate which banks tend to borrow at called floating rate or short-term and the rate which they tend to lend at called fixed rate or long-term are is now negative. T
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