Bank of America sees stagflation, not recession—and no rate cut this year. It's because of 2 specific Trump policies [Fortune]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Fortune
disappointing jobs data fueling market speculation of an imminent policy shift. The reason, according to a new research note: the U.S. economy is headed toward a battle with stagflation—not recession—and cutting rates could worsen that toxic mix of stagnation and inflation. The BofA team, led by senior U.S. economist Aditya Bhave, cited two major Trump administration policies as the key factors in their call: tough new immigration restrictions and a fresh series of import tariffs. Why it's not a recession, according to BofA First things first, Bhave's team turned to the July jobs report that stunned Wall Street with a net downward revision of 258,000 payrolls for May and June. That's the second largest in modern history outside the initial pandemic shock and the largest ever in a non-recession year, according to Goldman Sachs calculations . But BofA's strategists argue this doesn't spell recession. In fact, the crux of their argument, they say, is that “markets are conflating re
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GS
Earnings
- 10/14/25 - Beat
GS
Sec Filings
- 12/23/25 - Form 424B2
- 12/23/25 - Form FWP
- 12/23/25 - Form FWP
- GS's page on the SEC website