Worried about rising inflation? These Goldman Sachs economists aren't [Globe and Mail, The (Toronto, Canada)]
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (The) (GS)
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Source: Globe and Mail, The
Carlos Osorio/Reuters But if that has you rattled, breathe easy (for now). Their case rests on a key difference between then and now. Several years ago, inflationary pressures came from widespread supply constraints that were related to pandemic-era shutdowns, which wreaked havoc on everything from bacon to used cars. Today's pressures are emanating largely from one source: an energy supply bottleneck in the Middle East as war throttles exports through the Strait of Hormuz. “While the size of the energy shock will likely prompt some caution (and we have accordingly delayed our forecast for cuts in several economies) a key difference from 2021-2022 is that the supply shock today appears narrowly concentrated in the energy sector,” the economists wrote in a note last week The price of crude oil has surged by as much as 70 per cent this year. And the drop in oil exports from the Middle East is the largest supply disruption in history , according to the International Energy Ag
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- GS's page on the SEC website