Chinese Bonds Near Inflection Point as Inflation Outlook Shifts [Yahoo! Finance]
ING Group, N.V. (ING)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
The benchmark 10-year yield has the potential to finally break out of its recent narrow trading range and rise toward 2% or even higher this year from around 1.8% now, some analysts say. Meanwhile, the yield spread between five-year and 30-year notes, a measure of inflation expectations and supply pressure, has reached its widest in about four years and the gap may increase. Sentiment in the largest emerging debt market has shifted after a slew of upbeat data, from a surprise growth rebound to slower factory-gate price declines, cast fresh doubts on a deflation-driven narrative that has dominated trading in recent years. As nations around the world adjust to the new reality of elevated oil prices caused by the war in Iran, some analysts even suggest the rise in Chinese yields may have repercussions across emerging bond markets. “The deflation trade has reached an inflection point,” said Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING Bank. “It is not a normal situation for an
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- ING's page on the SEC website