Canada's fiscal growth to see half-point boost from government spending, says CIBC [Yahoo! Finance]
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
While the federal government often commands the spotlight, the report highlights that provincial governments collectively wield a larger spending footprint, making their fiscal restraint a key factor in the national outlook. With further interest rate relief looking less likely, the public policy lift to Canadian growth will reflect the lagged impact of prior rate cuts and fiscal measures. "Since size matters for economic impacts, we need to dig into the numbers to understand just how big Canada's fiscal lift is likely to be, and when we'll feel it," the authors note. The CIBC analysis suggests that fiscal measures, including multiplier effects, will add a couple of decimal places to the annualized real GDP growth rate in upcoming quarters. This impulse is expected to ramp up to approximately half a percentage point by the end of 2027 as capital spending initiatives begin to take hold. While federal spending has become increasingly expansive, rising from 10% of GDP pre-pandemic
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