Wall Street Goes Long Lira in Optimism on Turkey Policy Reversal [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
The lira rose as much 0.8% against the dollar as of 2:20 p.m. on Monday, extending gains to a third day. The offshore overnight implied yield on the lira was trading at 45.5%, well below onshore rates of 52.5% as of Friday. Dropping forward yields offshore implies that investors abroad are buying the lira against the dollar or unwinding short-lira positions which had surged ahead of local elections in March. “We are now selling USDTRY 6m forwards, as we believe the currency may further absorb better flows over the next couple of months,” Citi strategists including Luis Costa said in a note to clients on Monday, referring to forward agreements with a six-month maturity. They said the trade is predicated on an assumption that the central bank will stay cautious with tight policies against rising inflation. JPMorgan last week also moved its lira recommendation to overweight from marketweight, recommending a trade against the dollar via 12-month forwards. “We believe the risk-rewar
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