Polymarket bettors put 62% odds on US forces entering Iran by April 30 as oil traders brace for $200 a barrel [Yahoo! Finance]
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD S/ADR (MQBKY)
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
Prediction market Polymarket is pricing a 62% probability that US military forces will enter Iran by April 30, with traders having staked more than $35 million on the question, as the conflict that has already sent oil prices to crisis highs threatens to push them to levels never seen before. The market, which resolves as "yes" only if active US personnel physically enter Iranian territory for operational purposes, shows a sharp escalation in implied probability over longer time horizons, with the December 31 contract pricing a 71% likelihood, up 22 percentage points in recent days. For the near term, however, bettors are more sceptical, placing just an 18% probability on US forces entering Iran before the end of March, a contract that has actually drifted down 6 points as President Donald Trump extended his deadline for striking Iranian energy sites by a further 10 days to April 6, reportedly after Iran allowed ten oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as a goodwill g
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