Macquarie: Two More Months Of War Could Send Oil To $200 [zero hedge]
MACQUARIE GROUP LTD S/ADR (MQBKY)
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Source: zero hedge
Macquarie: Two More Months Of War Could Send Oil To $200 Submitted by Tsvetana Paraskova of OilPrice.com Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned. The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg . But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie. “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically large amount of global oil demand,” Macquarie’s analysts wrote in the report. “The timing of the re-opening of the straits, and physical damage to energy infrastructure, is the main determinant of the longer-term impact on commodities,” they added. Many other analysts warn that if the Strait of Hormuz, which is already closed to most tanker traffic for nearly a m
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