Morgan Stanley sees growing risk of 'earnings recession' next year as yield curve inverts [CNBC]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
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Source: CNBC
Inversion of the so-called yield curve is yet another reason to fear an earnings, or even an economic, recession in 2019, according to Morgan Stanley. The bank's chief U.S. equity strategist told clients that while it's difficult to forecast what an inverted yield curve means for stocks in the near term, he wasn't surprised to see Wall Street's major indexes swoon in response to the shift in rates. Yield curve inversion was inevitable after five years of flattening. Unfortunately, it is not a clear signal for what happens next, equity chief Michael Wilson wrote. More importantly, we think it supports our late cycle view and growing risk of an earnings, if not economic, recession next year. Wilson sees a 50 percent chance of an earnings recession in 2019, but said it could take time for the market to price a contraction until it has more hard evidence. An economic recession, such as the one that occurred in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, is defined as two
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