Morgan Stanley's Worst Mexico Scenario Has Peso Falling 11% [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
Under a bear case — which the Wall Street bank describes as “institutional backsliding” — the peso would weaken to 19.20 per US dollar from around 17 per dollar currently. Even under a more likely scenario of policy continuity after the June 2 vote, the currency would weaken 5.6% against the dollar in a 12-month horizon, the bank said. “Mexico has been dealt a strong hand, benefitting from the strong link to the US and nearshoring potential,” strategists including Ioana Zamfir and Eli Carter wrote in a note Sunday. “Yet significant reforms are needed to fully take advantage of this.” Claudia Sheinbaum, a former Mexico City mayor from the ruling Morena party and President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's candidate, has a strong lead over opposition candidate Xochitl Galvez ahead of the June vote. In a recent interview with Bloomberg, Sheinbaum said that AMLO's fiscal austerity during the pandemic was one of the factors that helped shore up the peso. Neither of the leading candidate
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