Turkey's Inflation Math Is No Longer a Dealbreaker for Investors [BNN Bloomberg (Canada)]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
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Source: BNN Bloomberg
As Governor Fatih Karahan prepares to unveil the central bank's fresh outlook at a quarterly event in Ankara on Thursday, investor focus is instead on how monetary policy aligns with a goal that a top official calls “ambitious but attainable.” It envisions inflation almost halving to 36% by the end of the year, a view more optimistic than the predictions of all but one analyst surveyed by Bloomberg. Overly sanguine projections under the central bank's previous leadership were once a turnoff for investors already alienated by ultra-low interest rates as consumer prices spiraled out of control. Now, however, the central bank sees its forecasts as targets meant to shape policy while doing “whatever it takes” to smother inflation. A decision to maintain this year's forecast at 36% for a second quarter would actually support inflows into local bonds if accompanied by a signal of additional tightening, said Altug Ozaslan, chief executive officer of investment consultancy Fortuna Capita
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