What The End Of The Credit Cycle May Look Like, And How To Trade It [zero hedge]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Last morgan stanley earnings: 4/16 07:15 am
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Source: zero hedge
With the current economic expansion now in its 109 consecutive month, and rapidly approaching the longest expansion in history with yield curve just 25 bps away from inverting, the two questions asked by most investors are i) are we "late cycle", and ii) when does the next recession begin.Where should one look for the answer? Since equities are notoriously late in spotting economic inflection points - and usually do so violently, and in the context of a market crash - the best option is credit. And while there are no clear signs of a turn in the credit cycle yet, some long term investors are already planning for it.One place to watch is the Morgan Stanley Credit Cycle Indiactor which we profiled in April, and which shows that approximately half of the cycle indictors are already flashing red.This is what Morgan Stanley said three months ago:In terms of timing, we think that enough signals are flashing yellow and cracks are forming to indicate a credit cycle on its last legs: For examp
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