When do higher oil prices shift risk from inflation to growth? [Yahoo! Finance]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Last morgan stanley earnings: 4/16 07:15 am
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Source: Yahoo! Finance
determined by the conflict in the Middle East, Morgan Stanley acknowledged in a note to clients on Friday. Analysts led by Michael Gapen said the near-term outlook hinges on whether rising energy costs begin to curb demand rather than simply lift inflation. “Oil price shocks create convexities and nonlinearities,” Morgan Stanley wrote, warning that moderate price gains tend to “push inflation higher and dampen activity,” while sharper increases may “destroy demand such that growth effects dominate.” Morgan Stanley is monitoring several indicators to determine when the balance tips. Retail spending is the first critical gauge. The bank noted that oil shocks “tend to reduce consumer spending on goods over services,” adding that the impact should appear in weaker retail sales excluding gasoline. However, the key March report will not be released until April 21. Labour data so far remain resilient. Morgan Stanley expects March headline payrolls to rise by 60,000 and private payr
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