Forecaster of the Month: Growth slowing, but economic fundamentals still strong, forecaster says [MarketWatch]
ROYAL BANK of SCOTLAND (RBS)
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Source: MarketWatch
Growth slowing, but economic fundamentals still strong, forecaster says Fears that the U.S. was heading into a recession this year, which were always overblown, are now receding because the foundation of the economy — jobs and wages — is solid, says Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics and the leader of the team that won MarketWatch’s Forecaster of the Month contest for March. Daco contends that markets, forecasters, businesses and households have a “recession bias” that clouds their judgment when headwinds appear on the horizon. This bias could become a self-fulfilling prophecy if businesses and households froze under uncertainty, refraining from investing and spending. “It’s the inability to see the 50 shades of grey between a 3% economy and a recession,” he wrote in a recent op-ed in The Hill. The difficulty comes when the economy hits an inflection point and people conclude that if the economy is no longer accelerating, it must be plunging. “We are no longer acc
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