Oil: Revenge Of The Negabarrels [Forbes]
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Royal Dutch Shell PLC American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Class B Ordinary Shares) (RDS.B)
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Source: Forbes
Never before, say shell-shocked oil traders, has the world price of crude oil fallen so far.Well, not since the early 1980s, anyway. Or was it 2008? Or 2014? Look at the 50-year history:World oil consumption vs. real crude-oil price, 1970–2019...Amory B. LovinsStarting at the lower left, this roller-coaster ride of real pricebailoutclaimsThe pandemic-sped oil price drop is the fastest, but maybe not the deepest. Benchmark Brent crude oil’s annually averaged real price fell in 2008 by 36%, in 2014 by 47%, but in 1980–86, in an inexorable six-year skid, by 71%. From its January 2020 high to its April low, its daily price just fell 72% to below $20. Traders expect a rebound with eventual economic recovery, but $20 oil would put the entire US industry underwater despite the subsidies that most of its output already requires to yield a profit. A year of $20 oil would bankrupt many smaller suppliers and some nations. Saudi Arabia needs $80 oil to pay its bills, US frackers $40–50, Russia
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