So How Much Wealth Destruction Has Truly Occurred Since February? [Forbes]
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Royal Dutch Shell PLC American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Class B Ordinary Shares) (RDS.B)
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Source: Forbes
Security prices always reflect a sort of “tug-of-war” between reality and perception, between a company’s fundamentals and investor sentiment. In the short run, sentiment always has the upper hand in determining stock prices.Going back to 1881, ProfessorShillerIn the long run, fundamentals have the upper hand in determining stock prices. Sentiment loses its power over fundamentals as time goes by because valuations will eventually mirror the performance of a business, and its ability to generate cash.A tool that can help us in thinking through this tug-of-war between perception and reality includes sentiment readings.When sentiment readings are at extremes of either bullishness or pessimism we can say the tug-of-war has gone too far one way or the other. Unfortunately, rarely are sentiment readings at extremes, so most of the time sentiment data is not particularly useful, or actionable.In mid-February we knew optimism reigned, but it was not over-the-top bullish. Yet for anyone payin
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