Market Extra: 5 key ways Wall Street and economists think about the yield curve [MarketWatch]
SEI Investments Company (SEIC)
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Source: MarketWatch
5 key ways Wall Street and economists think about the yield curve The yield curve has captured Wall Street—and to a lesser extent Main Street’s—attention in recent weeks. And for a good reason. The past nine recessions have been preceded by the inversion of the curve, where short-term Treasury rates exceed their long-term counterparts. Much of the breathless attention on the shape of the curve has centered on the tightening gap between the 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields. But there are other key pairs that can signal how investors are thinking about where the economy is headed from here. While 2s-versus-10s garners the most attention, many economists and Fed officials tend to focus more acutely on the gap between the 3-month bill and the 10-year note as the best signal, if it inverts, of an impending recession. This relationship, which grasps the more dramatic difference between very near-term rates and a reasonable point of time in the uncertain future, has a better track record,
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