Morgan Stanley Warns ‘Winter Is Coming’ for Bank Stocks [Fortune]
SVB Financial Group (SIVB)
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Source: Fortune
Morgan Stanley expects slowing loan growth and fewer interest rate hikes to hurt midcap bank fundamentals next year, warning that sentiment on those companies may stay negative if economic conditions don’t get better. “The carefree days of rising rates and pristine credit quality could be coming to an end,” analyst Ken Zerbe wrote in a note Tuesday. “We cannot ignore the growing risk of a bear credit market next year preceding a recession as well as the negative impact of weaker economic growth,” both on credit quality and as a driver of slower loan growth. The market is valuing bank shares as if the economy is headed toward recession, with few investors willing to increase their exposure “without clearer indicators of accelerating economic growth” that are unlikely to arise anytime soon, Zerbe said. The KBW Regional Banking Index is down 12 percent this year, compared with little change for the S&P 500. Its price-to-earnings ratio of about 18 is near the lowest levels vers
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