Who Will Be Trump’s Pick to Lead the Fed? We Asked Experts to Rate the Odds [The New York Times]
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)
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Source: The New York Times
But those two top contenders combine for lower than 50 percent odds in our expert survey — meaning that our panelists thought there was a better-than-even chance that the appointment will be one of many contenders with individually modest but collectively high chances of rising to the top of the president’s list. Compared with PredictIt , an online marketplace based on news events, our experts saw slightly lower odds for either of them. On Thursday afternoon, trading on PredictIt implied 30 percent odds for Ms. Yellen and 28 percent for Mr. Warsh. Using our expert survey — and comments from some of the participants in it — here’s a guide to President Trump’s options as he makes perhaps the single most consequential economic decision of his first year in office. Yellen reappointment: continuity and bipartisanship There’s a tradition of reappointing Fed chairmen who were originally appointed by a member of the opposite party. President Obama did so with Ben Bernanke; Bill Cli
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