No Recession Signaled By Business Cycle Index: Update - March 2, 2017 [Seeking Alpha]
iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Asia ETF (EEMA)
US:NASDAQ Investor Relations:
ishares.com/us/products/239637/ishares-msci-emerging-markets-etf
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Source: Seeking Alpha
Summary Knowing when the U.S. economy is heading for recession is paramount to successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index would have provided early reliable warnings for the past seven recessions. The BCI at 215.7 is above last week's level and no recession is signaled. The BCI at 215.7 is above last week's downward revised 214.7, and for this Business Cycle is at a new high indicated by the BCIp at 100. The 6-month smoothed annualized growth BCIg at 12.3 is above last week's downward revised 12.2. No recession is signaled. Figure 1 plots BCIp, BCI, BCIg and the S&P 500 together with the thresholds (red lines) that need to be crossed to be able to call a recession. The BCI was designed for a timely signal before the beginning of a recession and could be used as a sell signal for ETFs that track the markets, like SPY , IWV , VTI , etc., and switch into Treasury bond ETFs, like IEF , TIP , BND , etc. (see our article ).
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