Lumos Networks: Merger Deal Analysis [Seeking Alpha]
LUMOS NETWORKS (LMOS)
Last lumos networks earnings: 8/7 08:00 am
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US:NASDAQ Investor Relations:
ir.lumosnetworks.com
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Source: Seeking Alpha
Summary Merger Spread On the date of this writing, April 27, 2017, Lumos Networks Corp. (NASDAQ: LMOS ) shares closed at $17.89. That is a spread of $0.11, which gives us a return of approximately 0.61%. Assuming the merger closed as expected during the third quarter of 2017 (September 30, 2017), this gives an annualized return of 1.45%. Using the same closing price of $17.89, the potential loss will be $2.66 assuming the price will drop back to $15.23, the last closing price before the merger agreement was announced, if the merger fall apart. Is a gain of just $0.11 against a potential loss of $2.66 worth the investment? We'll have the answer using Benjamin Graham's risk arbitrage equation . We'll also assume a success rate of 95% based on an article published here in Seeking Alpha . Benjamin Graham Annual Return (BGAR) = [GC - L(100% - C)]/[YP] G = $0.11P = $17.89 L = $2.66C = 95% Y = 156/356 (assuming merger closing date of September 30, 2017) BGAR =
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