Goldilocks On The Rocks: Why Next Week's GDP Will Be "The Last Best Print" [zero hedge]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
Last morgan stanley earnings: 4/16 07:15 am
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Source: zero hedge
Authored by Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley Chief Cross-Asset StrategistNext week the US Department of Commerce reports its advance estimate of 2Q GDP. It’s likely to be a whopper. Our US economics team expects it to register at +4.7%, and given the unusually large number of moving parts at work this quarter, a 5-handle is possible. A few days later, the June reading of US PCE could show a slight downtick in core inflation. Robust growth and modest inflation; what could be better?Try not to get carried away. Amid the inevitable cries of ’Goldilocks’, a more important story lies below the surface. An unusually large number of one-off factors appear to have boosted 2Q GDP, many of which are directly related to escalating trade concerns. As companies and countries race to secure supplies that may become expensive later on, exports have surged and inventories have swelled. If these trends are one-time adjustments (and our economists believe they are), the ‘payback’ in 2H could be significan
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