Pandemic won't cause euro debt crisis, but a North-South divide [Reuters]
Morgan Stanley (MS)
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Source: Reuters
Pandemic won't cause euro debt crisis, but a North-South divide BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Euro zone government debt will surge this year on the coronavirus pandemic, but while another debt crisis is unlikely, large differences in indebtedness as countries emerge from the downturn could seriously test their unity. The International Monetary Fund expects debt in the 19 countries sharing the euro to jump by more than 13% of GDP to 97% this year as Europe-wide lockdowns cause an unprecedented 7.5% euro zone recession. But despite massive expected borrowing, the effect on yields has so far been small. Interest on bonds of already highly indebted Italy, Spain, Greece or Portugal is up by only 40-50 bps - kept in check by massive European Central Bank bond buying. “As the ECB is literally cleaning up all the secondary market ... the risk of a sovereign debt crisis is close to zero,” Saxo Bank’s economist Christopher Dembik said, echoing many economists and officials. The biggest difference compar
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